MBA Essay Examples

How KFC Is Positioning Itself To Gain A Rival Edge Over McDonalds - 1925 Words

How KFC Is Positioning Itself to Gain a Competitive Advantage over McDonald's (Term Paper Sample) Content: How KFC Is Positioning Itself to Gain a Competitive Advantage over McDonald's Name Course Instructor’s Name Institution Location of Institution Date How KFC is positioning itself to gain a competitive advantage over McDonald's KFC is a fast food multinational organisation headquartered in Louisville, Kentucky. It is the second largest fast food chain with more than 17,000 outlets in 119 countries and serving over 12 million customers annually (Harrington, Ottenbacher and Fauser 2017, 551). KFC specializes in chicken dishes. Founded in 1930 as Kentucky Fried Chicken, it changed its name to KFC, a subsidiary of YUM! Brands. Globally, analysts rank KFC as among the top ten fast food chains in the world. Harland Sanders, dubbed Colonel Sanders, founded KFC in Corbin, Kentucky where he sold fried chicken from a roadside restaurant. He invented the secret chicken recipe that is the signature of today’s KFC chicken (Wu and Cheng 2018, 158). Over the years, KFC has grown to become a global leader in the fast food industry. Although it performs excellently, KFC faces stiff competition from rivals such as McDonald's, Burger King, and Star Bucks Coffee among others. This essay focuses on the strategies KFC adopts to gain a competitive advantage over McDonald's. McDonald's is arguably the largest global fast food chain in the world regarding market penetration and revenue generation (Harrington, Ottenbacher and Fauser 2017, 551). Founded in 1940, McDonald's adopted a quick service system that is in place to date. McDonald’s products include hamburgers, sandwiches, French fries, and desserts. Globally, McDonald’s has a total of 33,510 outlets in 119 countries generating a total of $23 Billion as of 2017. Among the most significant strategies KFC adopts is product differentiation. The world knows KFC for its finger-licking chicken (Genoveva and Siam 2017, 1572). Their motto, â€Å"crispy on the outside and juicy is the inside,† â€Å"finger licking good,† â€Å"nobody does chicken like KFC† and â€Å"so good† perfectly describes their chicken (Mylonakis and Eyripiotis 2016, 22). KFC makes its signature chicken dish out of a mixture of 11 herbs and spices. The recipe remains a secret to date and is safely locked in a vault at its headquarters along with vials holding the same. Further, KFC serves the chicken in well branded and conspicuous cardboard â€Å"buckets.† The cardboards are unique in the industry and customers like them. Innovation also supports KFC’s grip on the chicken market (Crittenden, Crittenden and Pierpont 2015, 607). The chain recently introduced KFC Original Recipe Bites to counter McDonald’s Spicy Chicken McBites, and Burger King’s Chicken Tenders. In doing so, KFC cements its position in the fried chicken market. Along with product differentiation goes branding and brand value. The branding of KFC is catchy, unique, well patterned and famous (Wu and Cheng 2018, 159). The branding consists of a smiling sculpture of the founder spotting a goatee, a white suit, and a black tie against a red background. With the properties, the company adopts a similar facade, colour scheme, decor, and lighting (Crittenden, Crittenden and Pierpont 2015, 609). Further, it assumes the same order of indoor dining area. As such, it is easy for customers to identify a KFC outlet when they see one. There is global standardization in the taste, aroma, aesthetics, ingredients and nutritional value of food except dishes specially designed to meet the need of the host cultures such as in KFC China, and India (Jeon et al. 2016, 738). KFC adopts strict guidelines for standardizing the type of food ingredients used and in farm produce, the process of growing and rearing plants and animals. With presentations, the company adopts uniformity in restaurant items such as trays, mats, and napkins among other. The takeaway packaging, staff uniform, and staff efficiency is standard across the globe (Genoveva and Siam 2017, 1574). The same applies to KFC’s publications. The outdoor signs, media advertisements, and web pages are the same across all locations. The standardization of food products, the branding of publications and properties enhances KFC’s corporate visibility hence giving the brand value. KFC positions itself competitively by leveraging on franchising. With more than 17,000 international units, KFC enjoys a strong global presence (Crittenden, Crittenden and Pierpont 2015, 610). Franchising improves the brand value of the company hence bargaining power along with improving its revenue and visibility. KFC has a strong presence in Asia, Europe, and Africa. In 1973, KFC entered the Asian market with a restaurant in Hong Kong. The chain increased to 11 stores within a year. However, by 1975, the restaurants closed shop as KFC failed to develop a sustainable business model (Jeon et al. 2016, 738). In later years, KFC teamed up with local investors in a franchise agreement to re-enter the Asian market in 1983; this time equipped with experience from the previous failure. Localising the dishes along with translating content made the re-entry successful. In Asia, the restaurant adopts the name Ken De Jin, a mandarin translation of KFC. KFC China tends to introduce more new products than its competitors (Jeon et al. 2016, 740). As such, as Chinese prefer pork to chicken, KFC introduced pork dishes gaining a competitive advantage over McDonald's (Mylonakis and Eryipiotis 2016, 24). KFC China also offers Chinese style porridge, Beijing style chicken dishes, seafood sauce and Chinese style dough fritters. KFC India is another successful franchise owing to the localisation of its dishes. In India, KFC has incorporated the Indian cuisine into its dishes (Jeon et al. 2016, 742). The world knows India for its colourful and exotic dishes. A significant part of the Indian cuisine is made up of vegetables. KFC slogan in India is â€Å"So Veg, So good† and offers meals that are 100% vegetarian. KFC also offers egg dishes, and rice dishes in the country. The restaurant chain opened its first European outlet in the United Kingdom. The company also has franchises in Germany, Spain, and Russia among others. Europe is KFC’S third-largest market (Harrington, Ottenbacher and Fauser 2017, 555). KFC has also made significant penetration into the African market. Currently, there are more than 1000 KFC outlets in sub-Saharan Africa. The number outstrips that of McDonald’s outlets which presently stands at 200. KFC further positions itself strategically to gain a competitive over McDonald's through insisting on providing quality services. KFC sells freshly prepared meals ensuring quality and freshness (Genoveva and Siam 2017, 1574). Also, in the words of Colonel Sanders, the cooks make the chicken the hard way where the preparation starts with the cook inspecting every single piece of chicken. Further, the restaurant chain gives customers a chance to complete an online survey. The company uses the feedback to work on improving the customer experience in future. Quality is a crucial pillar of focus for KFC. KFC strives to ensure that it maintains the highest standards of quality for their products and services. To improve the quality of their products, KFC commits to providing healthy meals by reducing the caloric and fat content in its dishes (Clapp and Rowland 2014, 42). Further, KFC commits to improving its food variety, improving the ingredients and ensuring transparency in its operations. With service, KFC has a standard service procedure. KFC trains its staff continually to ensure that they provide excellent service. Another strategy KFC adopts to gain an advantage is its pricing strategy. KFC takes a cost-based pricing strategy as opposed to McDonald's which adopts a price bundling together with a psychological pricing model (Crittenden, Crittenden and Pierpont 2015, 612). With Cost based pricing, the company adds a margin to the cost of the product. The advantage of this method is that it is flexible and the company can adjust prices when the price of supplies rise, as such, the company can maintain a stable profitability rate. Still, on pricing, the company adopts a skimming pricing strategy. In this case, KFC sets a relatively high price when entering a market. The company then lowers the prices gradually as the years advance (Harrington, Ottenbacher and Fauser 2017, 558). The pricing strategy allows KFC recover its sunk costs early enough before competition reduces the market price. The company also prices it products comparable to that of its main competitors such as McDonald's. Regarding location, KFC strategically locates its outlets in major towns and cities where the population is high, and consumers have high levels of disposable income. The areas are situated along established distribution channels ensuring timely sourcing of raw materials as well as making sure the products reach the consumers in time (Harrington, Ottenbacher and Fauser 201, 560). KFC also locates its outlets near colleges, bus and train terminus, market areas and cinemas to enter a broader target market. KFC is sure to apply the market segmentation theory. Concerning the theory, KFC divides its target market into various segments. The company derives segments by demography, geography, behavioural and psychographic elements (Crittenden, Crittenden and Pierpont 2015, 613). At first, the company adopted a market niche criterion but changed this to counter competition to reach a broader market. With regards to geographic segmentation, the restaurant chain divides the market into geographical sections such as regions, countries, cities, towns, counties, states and neighbourhoods (Genoveva and Siam 2017, 1575). KFC designs and sells its products with the customer’s cultural considerations in the different geographic segments in mind (Wu and Cheng 2018, 167). The company measures the potential of the segments to allow efficient function...

Find Out How To Write Top Persuasive Research Paper Topics

Find Out How To Write Top Persuasive Research Paper TopicsWriting a great sales letter and your sales page will require top persuasive research paper topics. A good number of articles to show the correct way to start a sales letter, but more articles will show how you can increase your sales page writing income. The fact is that it is important to write a top persuasive research paper topic in order to make sure that your sales letter is the best it can be. To get the best results it is essential to begin by starting with a strong and intriguing headline.To be effective, you should choose top persuasive research paper topics which relate to the product or service that you are writing about. For example, if you are writing about body suits for athletes then you should choose topics which pertain to sports. This includes topics such as sports supplements and specialty clothing for athletes. In addition to this, you need to make sure that your research paper topics are free from any bor ing or generic subject matter.Top persuasive research paper topics should include interesting or educational sub-topics. You should therefore think about the types of books or magazines that you might choose to research for your topic. The next step is to work out what questions you will want to answer about your topic. This way, you can decide on the type of research that you will conduct.A good way to determine which research paper topics are effective is to consider the main type of questions which are asked in typical surveys. For example, a survey about the weather may ask you to rate your preference for warm or cool weather. If you rate your preference as being very hot or very cold, then you will probably be best suited to investigate weather forecasting or other aspects of the weather.So when you are choosing research paper topics you need to think about the specific questions that the surveyors will ask. It is important to ensure that your research paper topics are interest ing and engaging. However, it is also important to ensure that the research paper topics that you choose contain good quality examples. You will discover that writing top persuasive research paper topics involves using a variety of strategies.One of the simplest ways to ensure that your research paper topics are effective is to firstly read the sample essay before you write your own. This will allow you to be familiar with the style of writing that is used in the sample and what questions the sample asks. Secondly, you will be able to check that the information that you provide is correct, accurate and up to date.Top persuasive research paper topics should always include useful information, and they should not be too long. After all, these topics should inform your readers about something interesting or useful about the product or service that you are writing about. Also, it is important to remember that the research paper topics that make the most money will make clear and interest ing points.Top research paper topics can be written in different ways. But the main goal is to find good information that will help your readers to make informed decisions. When you choose to research topics which involve making informed decisions, then you will be choosing topics that are more likely to convert visitors into customers. Most businesses will find that their sales letter can be improved by studying top persuasive research paper topics.

Essay For College Samples

<h1>Essay For College Samples</h1><p>Writing an article for school isn't at all as simple as it looks. The composing ought to be distinctive for each understudy and the composing style should fit the individual character of the individual composing the exposition. The paper for school test is accessible for each understudy who is wanting to take up a decent school course.</p><p></p><p>If you have been composing articles in secondary school, your composing style has changed to a progressively close to home sort which is reasonable for exposition for school. There are various understudies who discover composing an article for school extremely troublesome yet there are different understudies who think that its simple and appreciate it.</p><p></p><p>When you compose a paper for school it ought to be spellbinding, inventive and clever. It should feature your qualities and shortcomings and should manage the perusers towards an end. A few understudies are preferred scholars over others and this reality doesn't infer that the understudies with lesser abilities are preferred journalists over those with more noteworthy talents.</p><p></p><p>Essay for school tests give you an ideal chance to get familiar with a great deal of things about composition. You will have the option to accomplish extraordinary statures by perusing the article for school tests and establish more connection with your instructors and educators by composing a paper for college.</p><p></p><p>Some understudies imagine that they are sufficiently brilliant to compose an exposition however they are most certainly not. They think that its hard to make a straightforward sentence in their mind and get the words out effectively. Hence, article for school tests can assist you with building up your composing abilities. You will have the option to compose increasingly exact and clear sentences that w ill dazzle your instructors and professors.</p><p></p><p>You can likewise utilize these articles to glance back at your papers that you have written in secondary school and survey how you took care of specific pieces of the exposition. Additionally, the paper for school tests can fill in as a fascinating record to introduce the best of your article composing capacity to the teachers.</p><p></p><p>What makes an exposition for school exceptional is the way that it very well may be utilized to analyze the two papers that you have composed previously. This will assist you with evaluating your abilities better. Besides, this can end up being a favorable position in the event that you are doing an exploration paper in a college.</p>

Essay Topics on Greek Architecture

<h1>Essay Topics on Greek Architecture</h1><p>Exhibitions and activities frequently have article points that require the understudy to put their insight into Greek engineering to utilize. These may incorporate structures or landmarks from antiquated Greek society. A few subjects may likewise incorporate the Olympic Games, despite the fact that there is no standard that a paper must incorporate this theme. Most present day instructors will permit the understudies to utilize whatever materials they feel are necessary.</p><p></p><p>Some of the most ordinarily utilized exposition themes on Greek engineering incorporate archeological discoveries of structures from the old style time frame. These can incorporate discoveries from historical centers or private assortments. An exposition may likewise include unearthings of such structures, or letters that show that they were available previously. A significant number of these discoveries will have bee n found with removal instruments and apparatus, for example, a crane.</p><p></p><p>There are numerous cutting edge thoughts that can be applied to the possibility of Greek design. A great deal of the exemplary ideas, for example, engineering, geometry, and science, originated from reasoning. There are additionally the presumptions that Greek culture, instruction, and legislative issues included a harmony between the male and female parts of the populace. Such hypothesis was recorded by many, for example, Aristotle, Plutarch, Strabo, and Strabo. One can make the supposition that numerous different people groups and societies had comparative thoughts as well.</p><p></p><p>The utilization of structures can likewise be utilized to depict the connection between the traditional world and current timespans. Most structures from Greek human advancement were built to keep going for many years. This made it simpler for individuals to live inside such structures, as opposed to depending on development materials to last longer.</p><p></p><p>The utilization of figures and plans that utilization viewpoint, a point of view that is circular fit as a fiddle, is additionally a typical utilization of article themes on Greek design. There are numerous models that show this, for example, the Parthenon and other such structures. Thesculptures likewise demonstrate that Greek engineering was not constrained to a particular plan. Indeed, even an extremely straightforward square-formed structure could be one that utilized the viewpoint concept.</p><p></p><p>The huge size of structures from this period is likewise very great. There are numerous huge structures, for example, the Parthenon, and the Temple of Zeus at Olympia. It isn't unordinary for them to have sections, and they do take up a lot of floor space. A Greek school would require a study hall or auditorium.</p><p></p&g t;<p>Knowledge about Greece will profit anybody that finds out about it and needs to find out about it. It would likewise give a more prominent comprehension of human instinct, and the distinctions in political, and social orders on the planet today. Instruction is the way to understanding other people groups' information, and the amount they learn and the amount they don't, and what they esteem, and what they don't value.</p><p></p><p>Exhibitions and undertakings about Greek design ought to be drawn nearer with a lot of care. Understudies need to move toward it with information, and not by just replicating another person's work with no information on what the person in question is doing. It is acceptable to ensure that an understudy has perused the entirety of the data about it, so as to realize what the person in question needs to know.</p>

The Data and Methodology used in the Hang Seng Index - Free Essay Example

In this chapter, there is description of data used in this study, which are The Hang Seng Index (HSI), The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Holding plc (HSBC Hldgs) and Oriental Press Group Limited. After that, methodologies of predictions based on past volatilities and GARCH class conditional volatility models are presented. Finally, I will talk about how to evaluate the forecasting performances in according to select the best models. Now, let me introduce the data analyzed in my study. 3.1 Data description 3.1.1 The Hang Seng Index (HSI) Global investors treat the Hang Seng Index (HSI) as an indicator of the performance of the stock market in Hong Kong. The HSI was publicly launched on 24 November 1969 and is one of the earliest stock market indexes in Hong Kong. It is now maintained by Hang Seng Indexes Company Limited, which is a subsidiary of Hang Seng Bank, one of the constituent companies. The HSI is a freefloat-adjusted market capitalization weighted stock market index. : The current price at Day t : The closing price at Day t-1 IS : The number of issued shares FAF : Freefloat-adjusted Factor, which is between 0 and 1 CF: Cap factor, which is between 0 and 1 It consists of 43 constituent companies which represent around 60% of the total market capitalization of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX). In order to show the price movements of the major sectors of the market clearer, the HSI constituent stocks are grouped into four sub-indexes: Properties, Utilities, Commerce and Industry, and Fina nce. Normally, qualified potential constituents are companies with a primary listing on the Main Board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX). In recent years, more and more mainland China companies listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX), they can also be one of the qualified potential constituents if they meet several conditions. The companys total ordinary share capital must be in the form of H shares, the shares of the company incorporated in mainland China that are traded on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. And also, the company needs to complete the process of Share Reform first. As a result, the company has no unlisted share capital. As the market capitalization, the turnover ranking and the financial performances of the companies may change in different periods, the list of constituent stocks is reviewed quarterly. In this paper, the daily closing Hang Seng Index and the weekly Hang Seng Index are used. The data set ranging from 1 July 1997 to 30 June 2008 is retrie ved from Datastream, a U.K. incorporated data service company. The data set is partitioned into the in-sample estimation periods 1997 2007, the out-of-sample forecast periods 2007 2008. This separation provides 2467 and 522 in-sample observations for the daily series and weekly series respectively. For out-of-sample observations, there are 246 for daily series and 52 for weekly series. In order to obtain more accurate results, public holidays and special incidents leading the public announcement of non-trading, such as the black signal of the Rainstorm Warning System and no. 8 storm force wind signal of Hong Kongs Tropical Cyclone Warning Signals. During this period, there were quite a lot of economic events affecting the stock market in Hong Kong. Hong Kong is one of the victims of 1997 Asian Financial Crisis. After the HSI peaked at 16820, it was attacked by international speculators, leading to a 50% plunge. In 1998, the Hong Kong government intervention on stock market to p urchase component shares supported the market and the HSI rebounded to 18000. The rise in both the interest rate and the crude oil price burst the dot-com bubble in 2000. The HSI dropped to 14000 and then fluctuated between 14000 and 16000. 911 Incident occurred in 2001. The HSI kept falling and the minimum was 8894. The stock market started to recover after Mainland and Hong Kong Closer Economic Partnership Arrangement (CEPA) was signed on 29 June 2003. In August 2007, mainland China declared the plan to allow part of citizens to invest on Hong Kong market directly. In October, stimulated by the news of AH stock hedging program, the HSI break through 30000. Unfortunately, the HSI was affected by the fallen chain of major stock markets in the world and dropped 2061.23 on 22 January 2008. During this period, the average point of the HSI is 14313.39 and the stand deviation is 4563.68. The lowest point in these eleven years was 6660.42 which occurred on 13 August 1998. 31638.22 was the highest point and occurred on 30 October 2007. 3.1.2 HSBC hldgs Besides the HSI, one of the constituent stocks is randomly selected. At the beginning of the selection process, each constituent stock is assigned a number, 1 43. Then, a number, between 1 43, is randomly generated by Excel. If the assigned number of the company matches the generated number, that company will be selected and studied in this paper. The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Holding plc (HSBC Hldgs) is the selected constituent company and belongs to the Finance Sub-indexes. HSBC hldgs is one of the most favourite stocks in Hong Kong. In 1865, it was founded in Hong Kong in March and in Shanghai one month later. The banks headquarter was in Hong Kong until 1992. Then it moved to London as a condition of the acquisition of Midland Bank in UK, and also due to the handover of Hong Kongs sovereignty. Currently, HSBC hldgs is both the worlds largest banking and financial services group and the 5th largest stock in the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) by market capit alization. HSBC hldgs is also listed on the Bermuda, New York, London and Paris Stock Exchanges. It is a constituent of the FTSE 100 Index and the largest company listed on the FTSE. In 2010, CEO Michael Geoghegan moved to Hong Kong since HSBC hldgs focuses on Asia more now. Similarly, both daily and weekly closing prices of HSBC hldgs ranging from 1 July 1997 to 30 June 2008 are retrieved from Datastream. The data set is also divided into the in-sample estimation periods 1997 2007 and the out-of-sample forecast periods 2007 2008. The number of in-sample observations and out-of-sample observations for both daily and weekly series are also the same as the HSI series and the non-trading days are excluded. For in-sample observations, there are 2467 for daily series and 522 for weekly series. For out-of-sample observations, there are 246 for daily series and 52 for weekly series. During this period, the average closing price of HSBC hldgs is 96.92 and the stand deviation is 23.2 6. The lowest closing price in these eleven years was 40.48 which occurred on 21 September 1998. 140.586 was the highest closing price and occurred on 15 October 2007. 3.1.3 Oriental Press Group Limited In this paper, another stock which is not the constituent stock is also studied. The stock is selected randomly like the chosen constituent stock. Oriental Press Group Limited is selected and is incorporated in Hong Kong. The group takes part in the publication of daily newspapers, Oriental Daily News and The Sun, and The Sun Racing Journal. Oriental Daily News was first published in 1969. Today, the paper is at the top in the daily circulation and has a record readership of around 3,100,000. Unlike Oriental Daily News, The Sun targets at a younger and fresher reader groups. The Sun was published since 1999, and can also be found outside Hong Kong. By considering a lot of Hong Kong people living in North America and in order to develop the market of The Sun, there is a North America version in New York and Toronto. The Sun Racing Journal was established in 1991. It is one of the major horse racing magazines in Hong Kong. Like the HSI and HSBC Hldgs, both daily and weekly clos ing prices of Oriental Press Group Limited ranging from 1 July 1997 to 30 June 2008 are retrieved from Datastream. The data set is also divided into the in-sample and the out-of-sample with the same period as the above two series. The number of in-sample observations and out-of-sample observations for both daily and weekly series are also equal to as that of the HSI series and HSBC hldgs series. During this period, the average closing price of Oriental Press Group Limited is 1.499 and the stand deviation is 0.657. The lowest closing price in these eleven years was 0.533 which occurred on 23 June 1998. 3.175 was the highest closing price and occurred on 14 January 2004. 3.1.4 Transformation of Data As this paper is studying the volatility, I focus on the returns of the HSI and the stocks rather than the index and closing prices. Therefore, a transformation of data is needed before modeling. Data are transformed into daily returns by taking the first difference of the natural logarithm of the daily index and closing prices. : The daily return : The current price at Day t : The closing price at Day t-1 Mean equals to 0.00138 and stand deviation is 0.0176. Mean equals to 0.00163 and stand deviation is 0.0169. Mean equals to -0.00032 and stand deviation is 0.0315. 3.2 Methodology Stationarity If a time series can be estimated using time series models, it must be a stationary process, as non-stationary process cannot be studied directly. If the joint probability distribution of time series data keeps constant when time is moving, this data set can be said to be stationary and the mean and variance do not change over time. On the contrary, a non-stationary process whose joint probability keep changing in the period. The mean and variance vary at different time points. However, usually after a non-stationary series has been transformed, such as differencing or log-difference, the series become stationary. Accordingly, it is necessary to test whether the data set is under a stationary process before any further analyzing. The Augmented Dickey and Fuller (ADF) test is employed in this paper. The ADF test is an improved version of the Dickey and Fuller (DF) test. Both tests null hypotheses are the series with a unit root, which means the series is non-stationary. The DF te st is only based on a simple regression. where the residuals are followed the Dickey-Fuller Distribution. The hypothesis testing is The test statistic is After that, comparing the test statistic with the relevant critical value for the Dickey-Fuller test, if the value is larger than the critical value, the null hypothesis can be rejected, and the model is stationary; vice verse. The ADF test is based on a more complicated more. where is a constant, is the coefficient of a deterministic trend and is the summation of the lag orders of the autoregressive process. Historical mean Probably, the historical mean provides the easiest way to forecast the volatility. All the in-sample observations are used and equally weighted to forecast. where is the number of out-of-sample observations Moving average Under moving average method, the forecast of the volatility is given by an unweighted average of the in-sample observations. Unlike the historical mean method, not all the in-sample observations are used. The average is based on the in-sample observations over a particular time interval of fixed length. where T is called the moving average period or rolling window. Three different lengths are considered for each frequency. For daily data, three months, six months and one year are chosen. For monthly data, six months, one year and two years are chosen. Random walk Both historical mean and moving average methods assume that the volatility will be in stable or change slowing with a trend. But, if the volatility fluctuates unpredictably, the best forecast of the volatility of next period is the current real volatility. Exponential smoothing Under exponential smoothing method, the forecast of the volatility is a weighted average of the previous actual observation and the previous forecast. where is the smoothing factor, and must be between 0 and 1. If is equal to zero, the forecast exactly equals the prior actual observation and the exponential smoothing method becomes random walk. When approaches one, the preceding forecast is the majority. The value of smoothing factor is determined by minimizing the in-sample sum of squared errors. The estimated smoothing factors for daily data are between 0.64 and 0.95. For weekly data, the values lie in the range 0.88 to 0.92. Exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) The exponential weighted moving average (EWMA) method is similar to the exponential smoothing method. The only difference is that the prior actual volatility is replaced by a moving average method. where is a smoothing factor lying between 0 and 1. Like the exponential smoothing method, the EWMA method becomes random walk if the smoothing factor is equal to zero. When the factor is getting closer and closer one, the moving average will be weighted heavier and heavier. For daily data, the estimated values of factors are in the range 0.001 to 0.53. The smoothing factors lie between 0.001 and 0.4 for weekly data. Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) If the variance of the data is constant, the process is called homoscedastic. However, a lot of time series data in the real world have time-varying variance. In 1982, Engle proposed the autoregressive conditional heteroscedasiticity (ARCH) model to deal with time series data. Four years later, Bollerslev suggested the GARCH model. A GARCH (p , q) model is where , , and . There are joint estimations of both the conditional mean and the conditional variance process in the GARCH model. The error term, , follows a normal distribution with zero mean and the variance which varies with time. indicates the persistence of shocks to volatility. If the sum is equal to one, the GARCH model becomes the integrated-GARCH (IGARCH) model. Threshold-GARCH (TGARCH) In the GARCH model, it assumes that shocks with equal magnitude have the same impacts on the volatility no matter which sign shocks are, positive or negative. However, the different sign of the shock may have a different impact on the volatility. In order to parameterize this idea, the TGARCH model is one of a number of ways. The TGARCH model was proposed by Glosten, Jagannathan and Runkle in 1993. The model is express as where if , and if . Consequently, a positive shock has an impact of on the volatility, and a negative shock has an impact of on the volatility. If is greater than zero, the negative shock has an larger impact on the volatility and vice versa. quantifies the persistence of shocks. Asymmetric-GARCH (AGARCH) The AGARCH model is another way to parameterize the idea that different sign of shock with equal magnitude has a different impact on the volatility. The AGARCH model looks quite similar to the TGARCH model and is expressed as If is a positive number, the positive shock has a smaller impact on the volatility and vice versa. Exponential-GARCH (EGARCH) The EGARCH model (Nelson, 1991) does not have the non-negativity constraint on the parameter, and , in the above three GARCH models. And also, the EGARCH model is the third asymmetric kind of GARCH models in this paper. The model is expressed as where The positive value of indicates that the positive shock has an larger impact on the volatility and vice versa. 3.3 Forecast evaluation After the volatility has been forecasted, the forecasters need to be evaluated to see how small the forecast errors are. There are several loss functions for the forecast error. The choice of loss functions totally depends on investors preferences. Symmetric loss function The mean error (ME), mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean squared error (RMSE) are the easiest and commonest ways to measure the forecasting performance. The result of the ME can be an indicator showing the direction of overprediction or underprediction on average. As the errors by overprediction and underprediction offset each other, it is not surprising that the ME statistic usually is the lowest one among the others. Unlike the ME, the MAE does not have the problem of the offsetting effect. The RMSE provides a measurement if the investor prefers to impose a more heavily penalty upon the larger forecast errors. Asymmetric loss function As mentioned before, all investors have their individual preference for the loss functions. It is likely that investors have asymmetric loss functions rather than symmetric loss functions. Referring the past research (Pagan and Schwert, 1990; Brailsford and Faff, 1996), the mean mixed error is employed in this paper. Firstly, the mean mixed error with a more heavily penalty on the forecast errors by underpredicting is Secondly, the mean mixed error penalizing the overpredicted forecast errors move heavily is where O is the number of overpredictions and U is the number of underpredication in the out-of-sample forecasts.

Topics for Immigration Research Paper U.s Options

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